As the award season asteroid comes barreling down on the earth with the Golden Globes in tow, it’s time to take a serious look at the Supporting Actress category and how the race is playing out in an unconventional way. 

The Contenders

Ten different winners in Supporting Actress marks the most individual winners of any of the acting categories so far this season. No consensus in the slightest. The widely predicted Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) and Ariana Grande (Wicked) are currently leading the pack with seven points each and five wins. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) is making a small push, winning Philadelphia, Seattle and Indiana’s regional critics award. Carol Kane (Between Two Temples), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) not falling far behind the pack.

In my eyes, the prediction for the Oscar comes down to a number of factors: Best Picture nomination and the SAG win. The last six winners have received both. Narrative wins are popular in this category too. Supporting, subconscious or not, holds less prestige with Oscar voters than lead and therefore, allows narratives to be picked over performance. 

Saldana vs Grande vs Qualley

Saldana, as the veteran actress and industry favorite, has that advantage going for her in a role that feels very much like a lead. Qualley and Grande, one a, and I don’t say this lightly, WORKING actress in Qualley and the other a pop star turned actress, have the feel of contenders that gets tagged with the “their time is coming later” and lose. In terms of passion, Saldana’s loudest supporters speak to her as the heart of the film. For The Substance, the passion is swarming but not necessarily for Qualley. Demi Moore is the focus of the campaign and Qualley’s insertion into the race feels based on the free-for-all feel to the category.

As for Saldana’s biggest rival, Ariana Grande is a real threat and if Wicked continues to be a top three contender for Best Picture winner, she will continue to be a threat. Emilia Perez has European support, winning many EFA awards and landing ten nominations in the internationally dominated voting body of the Globes. Emilia Perez being a frontrunner in Original Song makes it even stronger.

So, while the race remains in disarray, the foundation for a Saldana win is set in motion. Critics groups will continue to trade off winners. Outside the top three, Deadwyler stands with a performance loved by the audience and lots of screentime, but it’s in a film that will not get a Best Picture nomination or screenplay. Elle Fanning doesn’t have a substantial enough role in A Complete Unknown to give her serious consideration. In the end, the race, as hectic as it may seem, will be a two horse race unless Qualley can mount a massive campaign in phase two

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