Since The Florida Project, the clock has been ticking on a countdown to this moment for Sean Baker. The moment his poverty picture had enough crossover appeal and strong enough acting to give the industry “wunderkin” with an irreverent style an Oscar.

Anora

Boasting a Palme d’Or win under its belt, Anora has the narrative, passion, marketing and prestige to potentially push it over the top. Starting with Sean Baker’s script, he’s already well ahead of every screenplay, adapted or original, in the Oscar Points race and will be virtually a lock if it wins at the Globes or Critics Choice Awards.

The script Paints Ani (Mikey Madison) as emotionally manipulative, but she’s the one that is lost and that’s exhibited in the final car scene. Her Oscar scene. With Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths looking less likely by the day, only Cynthia Erivo for Wicked is in contention to win over AMPAS voters. It’s possible. Screen Actors Guild will play a major factor in the winner of this race. BAFTA, with its traditional sensibilities, feels destined to reward a major production like Wicked or even potentially The Brutalist. 

Outside of those two categories, that’s where Anora’s weakness lies. Yura Borisov (Igor) sits third in Oscar Points, but beating Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain and Guy Pierce for The Brutalist feels like a longshot.

Does it have any shot with below-the-line categories? ACE gave editor Sean Baker a nomination showing some strength among the guild voters. Nonetheless, Mikey Madison is a significant favorite if Baptiste fails to get nominated at the Oscars. While Sean Baker is a lock for Screenplay, meaning Actress, Screenplay almost certainly spells out Sean Baker Best Picture winner.

Sean Bakers’ legacy

Objectivity aside, I have a weird relationship with Baker’s work as his ivory tower view of poverty makes it feel like the subjects are animals in a human zoo and the box is the theater screen. Take Out is particularly egregious for this while being generally entertaining as a faux examination of the lifestyle. However, his Florida films – The Florida Project, Tangerine, and Red Rocket – capture the sort of backwater culture of impoverished people that make up these places. Even with a flare for visual style, Baker’s work is able to capture the gritty beauty underneath it all. It’s romanticized but it’s realism.

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